The Wall Street Journal
By Joanna Slater

Amid a fresh outbreak of violence, statewide elections begin next week in Kashmir, the disputed territory at the center of a larger conflict between India and Pakistan. The vote will be a monthlong obstacle course that could open new possibilities for talks between the two nuclear-armed countries or veer toward another sabre-rattling showdown.

The elections, the first such vote in the Indian-held part of Kashmir in six years, begin Monday. Ever since India and Pakistan toned down their war-like rhetoric in June, both sides have focused on the elections as the next litmus test in their continuing standoff.

If the elections go reasonably smoothly and violence remains limited, then the two countries will emerge with the best chance for dialogue since December's militant attack on India's Parliament prompted a massive military buildup.

Some signs point to the elections getting off to a rocky start. At least 24 people, including Kashmir state Law Minister Mushtaq Ahmad Lone, were killed in a surge of violence this week. Earlier in the run-up, militants killed several political-party workers and an independent candidate; two other candidates were shot at but were unharmed. India accuses rebels backed by Pakistan of trying to wreck the vote.

Still, on the key issue of Pakistan-based militants entering Kashmir, Indian officials say the number of militants crossing into Indian-controlled territory is lower than the historical average. But those numbers have been increasing since June as the election approaches, says an Indian official.

And it is still unclear how much Pakistan is prepared to do to stop the militants. The U.S. is urging President Pervez Musharraf to do more. In a speech Aug. 14, Pakistan's Independence Day, Mr. Musharraf described the polls as a farce and repeated that the Kashmir struggle is "a sacred trust...which can never be compromised."

Nevertheless, in a place where polls have tended to range from bad to worse, there are a few positive signs. At the least, this election will likely improve on the last, with better voter turnout, a wider variety of candidates and, in all likelihood, a cleaner election process. Still, there has been nothing close to a breakthrough. One of India's major goals -- getting prominent separatist leaders to stand for election -- has failed. And hovering behind it all is the specter of violence by militants, which could derail the process. The rebels, who seek an independent Kashmir or merger with Pakistan, reject Indian control over India's only Muslim-majority state and have called for a boycott of the elections.

The U.S. has tried to persuade prominent leaders of various separatist factions in Kashmir to stand for election. That could make the polls more representative of public opinion. But none of the separatists will run, fearing it would legitimize the status quo and also put their lives in danger.

Abdul Ghani Baht, head of the All-Party Hurriyat Conference, the umbrella organization of the separatists, says "there is no difference" between the coming elections and those held in 1996, which were marred by incidents of voter intimidation and allegations of poll-rigging. Still, the Hurriyat hasn't actively opposed the polls as it has in the past.

An especially unnerving development for the Hurriyat -- and one that may reflect a lessening of its resistance to elections -- is that two members of a group within the Hurriyat resigned and announced they would participate in the elections.

It is a risky decision for separatists to run. The former leader of the People's Conference, Abdul Ghani Lone, was assassinated in May by unknown gunmen. Many observers interpreted the killing as a warning to separatists not to join the electoral fray. Mr. Lone isn't related to the assassinated law minister.

Experts worry about the possibility of a major militant attack or additional assassinations during the coming month. "If someone very prominent is killed, then all bets are off," says Kanti Bajpai of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.