It will send a signal to the world that the regional environment is stable

India and Pakistan on Saturday agreed to pre-notify the flight testing of ballistic missiles and operationalise the hotline between their Foreign Secretaries in order to provide a stable environment of peace and security on the subcontinent. The new hotline will now replicate a similar communication channel that has existed between the Director General of Military Operations in both New Delhi and Rawalpindi for several years. This should prove useful for real time communication in the event of an unforeseen crisis. These steps would help to prevent accidents through misunderstandings and misinterpretations between the two countries, given the fears on either side of the other launching a missile strike. The agreement is part of the larger confidence building measures (CBMs), after the two countries emerged as nuclear weapon states in May 1998. The first step towards such an understanding was initiated in the Lahore Declaration of February 1999. Thereafter, New Delhi and Islamabad issued a joint statement in June, 2004 to formalise the nuclear CBMs.

The ballistic missile dimension to India-Pakistan relations started to take shape after Pakistan started acquiring ballistic missiles from different sources. The two countries continually need to validate various technical parameters to improve performance and therefore undertake such missile tests from time to time. Initially it was mandatory for the two countries to notify ships at sea about ballistic missile tests but intimation to neighbouring countries was obligatory.

Perhaps the significance of the latest announcement is that it conveys to the rest of the world that South Asia is a stable sub-region and that the two subcontinental neighbours rule out a nuclear conflagration. Clearly New Delhi and Islamabad would like to reassure the international community about their roles as responsible countries who have regular dialogues with each other — despite their differences. The two countries need to engage each other in diplomacy, especially related to ballistic missiles which are tested at varying frequencies, and therefore have the potential to be perceived as hostile acts by the other side.