THE LEADERS OF India and Pakistan have energised the ongoing process of positive engagement by agreeing to restart the composite dialogue in February. They also exuded a degree of optimism in asserting, in a joint statement issued after the meeting between Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, that the dialogue would lead to the "peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, to the satisfaction of both sides". Pakistan appears ready finally to abandon a major element of its Kashmir strategy with General Musharraf reiterating that he would not permit any territory under Pakistan's control to be used to support terrorism in any manner. While this declaration of intent has to be substantiated by developments on the ground, the discussions in Islamabad appear to have infused a measure of stability to the process of positive engagement that has unfolded over the past few months. The spasmodic and inconsistent way in which confidence building measures were taken up in the past cast doubts on the sustainability of the process. In reinvigorating the formal mechanism for consultations, the two countries have indicated a political will to work with each other despite serious differences on some vital issues.

In announcing the decision to restart the composite dialogue at the end of Mr. Vajpayee's visit for the SAARC summit, the two sides cast aside the conservatism that marked bilateral exchanges up to that stage. Until then Indian and Pakistani leaders appeared to have been weighed down by the outcomes of the Lahore and Agra summits and seemed apprehensive about raising expectations once again. While the Pakistani leaders have tried to make their people understand that relations with India would not be normalised in very short order, they have to be constantly aware of the political conditions in which the process of engagement will unfold. With Lok Sabha elections possible by the middle of the year, the Indian leadership might not be able to deal with the contentious issues in a substantive manner. It will not be able to produce any imaginative initiatives on the Kashmir issue or be able to summon the political will to implement any agreements on less vexatious matters such as the Tulbul project or Sir Creek. New Delhi will also need time to gauge whether Islamabad will persist with its efforts to contain cross-border terrorism. Both sides will need to exercise patience to ensure that the process of engagement does not stall since the frustration generated by failure will further erode the prospects of full normalisation.

India will continue to be cautious about dealing with a Pakistani establishment that is ultimately controlled by General Musharraf. It will not be in a hurry to conclude that the military-dominated Pakistani establishment has made an irreversible strategic decision in favour of friendship, cooperation and amity. However, the significance of recent developments on the other side of the border must not be underestimated. The two attempts to assassinate General Musharraf brought home to the Pakistani leadership the dangers inherent in its sponsorship of jihadi elements. Pakistan is under intense international scrutiny because of its long association with the jihadi movement and because of the latest revelations about its role in clandestine nuclear proliferation. The fear of international isolation could combine forces with the prospect of enhanced economic cooperation within the SAARC framework to move Pakistani policy further in a positive direction. That the leaders of the religious parties did not hesitate to interact with Prime Minister Vajpayee and his delegation perhaps indicates that most components of Pakistan's political spectrum have decided to support the process of engagement and sensible, mature dialogue with India.